Projecting Anthony Rendon's Next Contract

Anthony Rendon, fresh off winning the World Series, is looking to sign a huge deal this offseason, likely with a team that has aspirations of competing for the postseason.

Rendon and Mike Trout are the only position players in all of baseball to have produced 6+ fWAR in each of the last three seasons.

For six consecutive seasons, Rendon has been 2 runs above defensively at third base according to Ultimate Zone Rating, and he’s hit 20+ homers and 35+ doubles in four straight years.

In order to determine what it might cost to sign him, we will examine former contracts signed by two other star third basemen.

The first deal we will look at is the contract Manny Machado signed with the Padres in February of 2019…

Manny Machado

Assumptions we will be making for all players…

5.0% inflation (for first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

FanGraphs

His weighted fWAR heading into the deal…

2016 (age-23 season): 6.3

2017: 2.4

2018 (age-25 season): 6.2

Weighted WAR: 4.89 [(2018 * .45) + (2017 * .35) + (2016 * .2)

His projected WAR for the years covering his contract is as follows…

2019 (age-26 season): 5.15

2020: 5.4

2021 (age-28 season): 5.4

2022: 5.4

2023 (age-30 season): 5.4

2024: 4.9

2025 (age-32 season): 4.4

2026: 3.9

2027 (age-34 season): 3.4

2028: 2.9

Total: 46.25

The dollar layout of the deal…

2019: $12 million

2020: $32 million

2021: $32 million

2022: $32 million

2023: $32 million

2024: $32 million

2025: $32 million

2026: $32 million

2027: $32 million

2028: $32 million

Total: $300 million

Here are the values adjusted for inflation (in 2019 terms)…

2019: $12 million

2020: $30.48 million

2021: $29.02 million

2022: $27.64 million

2023: $26.33 million

2024: $25.07 million

2025: $25.07 million

2026: $25.07 million

2027: $25.07 million

2028: $25.07 million

Total: $250.82 million

$ (in millions) per 1 fWAR: 5.42

Nolan Arenado

His weighted fWAR heading into the deal…

2017 (age-26 season): 5.7

2018: 5.7

Projected 2019 (age-28 season): 5.7

Weighted WAR: 5.7 [(Projected 2019 * .45) + (2018 * .35) + (2017 * .2)

His projected WAR for the years covering his contract is as follows (note that I exclude the 2019 dollar amounts because that was previously agreed upon in arbitration)…

2020 (age-29 season): 5.6

2021: 5.6

2022 (age-31 season): 5.1

2023: 4.6

2024 (age-33 season): 4.1

2025: 3.6

2026 (age-35 season): 3.1

Total: 31.7

The dollar layout of the deal…

2020: $35 million

2021: $35 million

2022: $35 million

2023: $35 million

2024: $35 million

2025: $32 million

2026: $27 million

Total: $234 million

Here are the values adjusted for inflation (in 2019 terms)…

2020: $33.33 million

2021: $31.75 million

2022: $30.23 million

2023: $28.79 million

2024: $27.42 million

2025: $25.07 million

2026: $21.16 million

Total: $197.75 million

$ (in millions) per 1 fWAR: 6.24

Anthony Rendon

For Anthony Rendon, the $/fWAR that we will use is 5.83, which is an average of the two contracts that we looked at above.

His weighted fWAR heading into the deal…

2016 (age-27 season): 6.7

2017: 6.2

2018 (age-29 season): 7.0

Weighted WAR: 6.66 [(2018 * .45) + (2017 * .35) + (2016 * .2)

His projected WAR for the years covering his contract is as follows…

2020 (age-30 season): 6.7

2021: 6.2

2022 (age-32 season): 5.7

2023: 5.2

2024 (age-34 season): 4.7

2025: 4.2

2026 (age-36 season): 3.7

2026: 3.2

Total: 39.6

Corresponding cost by year…

2020: $41.01 million (6.7 * [5.83 * 1.05])

2021: $39.85 million (6.2 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2022: $38.47 million (5.7 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2023: $36.85 million (5.2 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2024: $34.97 million (4.7 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2025: $31.25 million (4.2 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2026: $27.53 million (3.7 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2027: $23.81 million (3.2 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

2028: $20.09 million (2.7 * [5.83 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05 * 1.05])

Possible contracts (in millions)…

  • 1 yr / $41.01
  • 2 yr / $80.86
  • 3 yr / $119.33
  • 4 yr / $156.18
  • 5 yr / $191.15
  • 6 yr / $222.4
  • 7 yr / $249.93
  • 8 yr / $273.74
  • 9 yr / $293.83

Prediction: 8 years for $275 million with the Phillies

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s