Awards Projector – Final Edition

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers that you’ll find below were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category…

2019

Hitters (minimum 100 games played)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 161.4
  • Overall median: 146

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 45
  • Overall median: 25

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 119.1
  • Overall median: 80

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.014
  • Overall median: .821

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3215
  • Overall median: .275

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 32.1
  • Overall median: 5

Defensive runs above / below average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 18.85
  • Overall median: 1.8

*Note: maximum = 9.6

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 21.1%

OPS: 26.4%

AVG: 15.9%

HR: 15.9%

RBI: 13.2%

Def: 4.9%

SB: 2.6%

These weights, like all the others, are approximate.

Coors Factor

MVP Score * .9287 (100/112 [Guts! 1yr park factor from 2018]) = .893; 1 – .893 = .107; .107 / 1.5 = .0713; 1 – .0713 = .9287)

AL MVP

NameTeamMVP Score
Alex BregmanAstros8.65
Xander BogaertsRed Sox8.47
Mike TroutAngels8.35
Rafael DeversRed Sox8.24
Marcus SemienAthletics8.19
Justin VerlanderAstros8.10
George SpringerAstros7.97
Gerrit ColeAstros7.90
Matt ChapmanAthletics7.86
Mookie BettsRed Sox7.76
Francisco LindorIndians7.73
DJ LeMahieuYankees7.65
Max KeplerTwins7.61
Jorge SolerRoyals7.45
Yoan MoncadaWhite Sox7.42

NL MVP

NameTeamMVP Score
Cody BellingerDodgers8.98
Anthony RendonNationals8.50
Christian YelichBrewers8.37
Eugenio SuarezReds8.37
Nolan ArenadoRockies8.26
Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves8.21
Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.20
Peter AlonsoMets8.05
Bryce HarperPhillies7.97
Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks7.91
Josh DonaldsonBraves7.84
Trevor StoryRockies7.59
Javier BaezCubs7.56
Ozzie AlbiesBraves7.52
Juan SotoNationals7.50

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 140 IP if “SP”)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 210.67
  • Overall median: 183

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 260.9
  • Overall median: 168

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.703
  • Overall median: 3.885

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.978
  • Overall median: 1.23

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

Coors Factor

MVP Score * 1.08 (112 [Guts! 1yr park factor from 2018] / 100) = 1.12; 1.12 – 1 = .12; .12 / 1.5 = .08; 1 + .08 = 1.08)

AL Cy Young

NameTeam Cy Young Score
Justin VerlanderAstros11.90
Gerrit ColeAstros11.61
Shane BieberIndians8.40
Charlie MortonRays8.20
Liam HendriksAthletics7.48
Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox7.14
Brandon WorkmanRed Sox6.77
Emilio PaganRays6.59

NL Cy Young

NameTeam Cy Young Score
Jacob deGromMets10.46
Jack FlahertyCardinals9.43
Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers9.22
Max ScherzerNationals8.43
Stephen StrasburgNationals8.21
Kirby Yates Padres8.07
Sonny GrayReds7.92
Clayton KershawDodgers7.72

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 60 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 84.9
  • Overall median: 60.33

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 14.644
  • Overall median: 9.365

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 1.767
  • Overall median: 3.81

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.856
  • Overall median: 1.26

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 1.967
  • Overall median: 1.17

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

*Felipe Vazquez has been excluded

AL Reliever of the Year

NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
Liam HendriksAthletics9.47
Brandon WorkmanRed Sox8.57
Emilio PaganRays8.34
Will HarrisAstros8.27
Taylor RogersTwins7.43

NL Reliever of the Year

NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
Kirby YatesPadres10.21
Josh HaderBrewers8.86
Giovanny GallegosCardinals8.03
Seth LugoMets7.69
Will SmithGiants7.12

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10.6%

*Note: minimum = 40 games played

OPS: 31.7%

AVG: 15.9%

HR: 21.1%

RBI: 13.2%

Def: 4.9%

*Note: maximum: 9.6

SB: 2.6%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

*Note: minimum = 60 IP

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

*Note: minimum = 20 IP

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

NameTeamROY Score
Yordan AlvarezAstros6.72
Eloy JimenezWhite Sox6.07
Brandon LoweRays5.59
Oscar MercadoIndians5.59
Michael ChavisRed Sox5.34

NL Rookie of the Year

NameTeamROY Score
Pete AlonsoMets8.10
Mike SorokaBraves7.30
Giovanny GallegosCardinals6.67
Victor RoblesNationals6.46
Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres6.41

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