Awards Projector – Updated

Last updated: September 15th, 11:00 A.M. EST

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who will win a certain reward if the season were to end on “x” date based on the actual voting results from the previous three seasons. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, Reliever of the Year, and ROY leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (at least every other week). Here is a spreadsheet (make sure to open it in Numbers to see the full set of spreadsheets) that I created which contains each players’ specific stats + score(s). I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers that you’ll find below were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category…

2019

Hitters (minimum: 65 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 148.6
  • Overall median: 135

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 42.3
  • Overall median: 23

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 112.7
  • Overall median: 73

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.016
  • Overall median: .816

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3246
  • Overall median: .2715

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 30
  • Overall median: 5

Defensive runs above / below average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 17.3
  • Overall median: 1.6

*Note: maximum = 8.7

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

Coors Factor

MVP Score * .9465 (100/112 [Guts! 1yr park factor from 2018]) = .893; 1 – .893 = .107; .107 / 2 = .0535; 1 – .0535 = .9465)

AL MVP

NameTeamMVP Score
Mike TroutAngels8.64
Xander BogaertsRed Sox8.35
Alex BregmanAstros8.35
Justin VerlanderAstros8.18
Rafael DeversRed Sox8.13
Marcus SemienAthletics7.95
Mookie BettsRed Sox7.85
George SpringerAstros7.84
Max KeplerTwins7.83
Matt ChapmanAthletics7.81
Francisco LindorIndians7.80
Gleyber TorresYankees7.65
DJ LeMahieuYankees7.58
Gerrit ColeAstros7.57
Jorge SolerRoyals7.27

NL MVP

NameTeamMVP Score
Cody BellingerDodgers8.98
Anthony RendonNationals8.64
Christian YelichBrewers8.62
Nolan ArenadoRockies8.54
Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.46
Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves8.35
Eugenio SuarezReds8.28
Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks8.02
Josh DonaldsonBraves8.01
Pete AlonsoMets7.82
Javier BaezCubs7.72
Juan SotoNationals7.71
Bryce HarperPhillies7.68
Trevor StoryRockies7.66
Freddie FreemanBraves7.58

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 140 IP if “SP”)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 194.8
  • Overall median: 168.8

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 241.1
  • Overall median: 155

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.723
  • Overall median: 3.95

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.986
  • Overall median: 1.245

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

Coors Factor

MVP Score * 1.06 (112 [Guts! 1yr park factor from 2018] / 100) = 1.12; 1.12 – 1 = .12; .12 / 2 = .06; 1 + .06 = 1.06)

AL Cy Young

NameTeam Cy Young Score
Justin VerlanderAstros12.04
Gerrit ColeAstros11.13
Shane BieberIndians9.02
Charlie MortonRays8.04
Liam HendriksAthletics7.76
Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox7.71
Mike MinorRangers6.91
Emilio PaganRays6.86

NL Cy Young

NameTeam Cy Young Score
Jacob deGromMets9.98
Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers9.07
Max ScherzerNationals9.06
Jack FlahertyCardinals8.35
Sonny GrayReds8.15
Kirby YatesPadres8.04
Walker BuehlerDodgers8.03
Mike SorokaBraves8.02

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 50 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 80.3
  • Overall median: 56.3

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 14.704
  • Overall median: 9.305

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 1.799
  • Overall median: 3.93

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.844
  • Overall median: 1.265

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 1.973
  • Overall median: 1.15

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
Liam HendriksAthletics9.82
Emilio PaganRays8.69
Brandon WorkmanRed Sox8.19
Will HarrisAstros7.83
Taylor RogersTwins7.71

NL Reliever of the Year

NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
Kirby YatesPadres10.17
Josh HaderBrewers9.17
Felipe VazquezPirates8.95
Giovanny GallegosCardinals8.30
Seth LugoMets7.57

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 40 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

*Note: maximum: 8.0

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

*Note: minimum = 50 IP

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

*Note: minimum = 20 IP

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

NameTeamROY Score
Yordan AlvarezAstros6.78
Eloy JimenezWhite Sox5.72
Brandon LoweRays5.63
Michael ChavisRed Sox5.46
Oscar MercadoIndians5.23

NL Rookie of the Year

NameTeamROY Score
Pete AlonsoMets7.84
Mike SorokaBraves7.77
Giovanny GallegosCardinals6.87
Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres6.53
Victor RoblesNationals6.41

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