Awards Projector – Updated

Last updated: August 19th, 10:00 A.M. EST

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who will win a certain reward if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, Reliever of the Year, and ROY leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (at least every other week). Here is a spreadsheet (make sure to open it in Numbers to see the full set of spreadsheets) that I created which contains each players’ specific stats + scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers that you’ll find below were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category…

2019

Hitters (minimum: 65 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 124.7
  • Overall median: 114

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 36.3
  • Overall median: 19

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 96.8
  • Overall median: 61

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.0146
  • Overall median: .811

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3283
  • Overall median: .2715

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 24.9
  • Overall median: 4

Defensive runs above / below average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 15.87
  • Overall median: 1.5

*Note: maximum = 8.0

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

NameTeamMVP Score
Mike TroutAngels9.15
Rafael DeversRed Sox8.62
Xander BogaertsRed Sox8.51
Max KeplerTwins8.09
Alex BregmanAstros8.03
Matt ChapmanAthletics7.94
DJ LeMahieuYankees7.84
Mookie BettsRed Sox7.52
Marcus SemienAthletics7.51
Francisco LindorIndians7.47
Carlos SantanaIndians7.45
Justin VerlanderAstros7.42
Gleyber TorresYankees7.41
Jose RamirezIndians7.36
George SpringerAstros7.23

NL MVP

NameTeamMVP Score
Cody BellingerDodgers9.42
Christian YelichBrewers8.92
Nolan ArenadoRockies8.60
Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves8.57
Anthony RendonNationals8.29
Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.25
Javier BaezCubs8.19
Trevor StoryRockies8.18
Peter AlonsoMets7.96
Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks7.94
Eugenio SuarezReds7.88
Josh DonaldsonBraves7.72
Bryce HarperPhillies7.64
Max MuncyDodgers7.64
Mike MoustakasBrewers7.54

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 120 IP if “SP”)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 164.3
  • Overall median: 142.7

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 203.9
  • Overall median: 132

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.593
  • Overall median: 3.89

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.988
  • Overall median: 1.23

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

AL Cy Young

NameTeam Cy Young Score
Justin VerlanderAstros10.92
Gerrit ColeAstros9.63
Charlie MortonRays8.92
Shane BieberIndians8.47
Mike MinorRangers7.61
Liam HendriksAthletics7.22
Emilio PaganRays6.81
Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox6.76
Jose BerriosTwins6.51
Brandon WorkmanRed Sox6.45

NL Cy Young

NameTeam Cy Young Score
Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers10.85
Max ScherzerNationals9.53
Jacob deGromMets9.27
Clayton KershawDodgers8.51
Kirby YatesPadres8.14
Mike SorokaBraves7.84
Walker BuehlerDodgers7.41
Luis CastilloReds7.38
Sonny GrayReds7.15
Patrick CorbinNationals6.85

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 40 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 73.6
  • Overall median: 48.3

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 14.711
  • Overall median: 9.14

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 1.669
  • Overall median: 3.86

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.865
  • Overall median: 1.26

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 2.017
  • Overall median: 1.08

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
Liam HendriksAthletics9.14
Emilio PaganRays8.62
Brandon WorkmanRed Sox8.16
Aaron BummerWhite Sox7.57
Will HarrisAstros7.20

NL Reliever of the Year

NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
Kirby YatesPadres10.31
Giovanny GallegosCardinals8.43
Felipe VazquezPirates8.19
Josh HaderBrewers7.89
Will SmithGiants6.99

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 40 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

*Note: maximum: 8.0

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

*Note: minimum = 50 IP

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

*Note: minimum = 20 IP

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

NameTeamROY Score
Yordan AlvarezAstros6.68
Brandon LoweRays5.97
Michael ChavisRed Sox5.84
Danny JansenBlue Jays5.42
Eloy JimenezWhite Sox5.39

NL Rookie of the Year

NameTeamROY Score
Pete AlonsoMets8.01
Mike SorokaBraves7.60
Giovanny GallegosCardinals6.99
Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres6.94
Victor RoblesNationals6.41

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