Awards Projector – Updated

Last updated: July 8th

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who will win a certain reward if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, Reliever of the Year, and ROY leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (at least every other week). Here is a spreadsheet (make sure to open it in Numbers to see the full set of spreadsheets) that I created which contains each players’ specific stats + scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/Cy_Young/Reliever_of_the_Year/ROY)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers that you’ll find below were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category…

2019

Hitters (minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 90.6
  • Overall median: 83

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 27.2
  • Overall median: 13

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 69
  • Overall median: 44

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.029
  • Overall median: .799

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3269
  • Overall median: .268

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 18.3
  • Overall median: 3

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 11.78
  • Overall median: 0.9

*Note: maximum = 5.9

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 20%

OPS: 25%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.NameTeamMVP Score
1Mike TroutAngels9.08
2Xander BogaertsRed Sox7.98
3Matt ChapmanAthletics7.97
4Alex BregmanAstros7.89
5Rafael DeversRed Sox7.82
6Max KeplerTwins7.78
7DJ LeMahieuYankees7.67
8Joey GalloRangers7.49
9Marcus SemienAthletics7.45
10Yoan MoncadaWhite Sox7.39
11Gleyber TorresYankees7.35
12Christian VazquezRed Sox7.13
13Elvis AndrusRangers7.09
14Carlos SantanaIndians7.08
15Justin VerlanderAstros7.04
15Gary SanchezYankees7.04

NL MVP

No.NameTeamMVP Score
1Cody BellingerDodgers9.76
2Christian YelichBrewers9.05
3Nolan ArenadoRockies8.53
4Javier BaezCubs8.34
5Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.23
6Peter AlonsoMets8.16
7Josh BellPirates7.98
8Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks7.94
9Trevor StoryRockies7.89
10Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves7.87
11Anthony RendonNationals7.85
12Max MuncyDodgers7.79
13Mike MoustakasBrewers7.75
14Hunter RenfroePadres7.72
15Yasmani GrandalBrewers7.71

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 50 IP if “SP”)

*Note: A long reliever/spot-stater will be classified as a starter if they average at least 4 IP/G

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 122.3
  • Overall median: 102.2

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 150.5
  • Overall median: 95

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.594
  • Overall median: 3.87

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.976
  • Overall median: 1.24

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 35%

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

Conversion Factor

Cy Young –> MVP = Cy Young Score * 0.68

AL Cy Young

No.NameTeam Cy Young Score
1Justin VerlanderAstros10.35
2Charlie MortonRays9.81
3Gerrit ColeAstros8.94
4Mike MinorRangers8.47
5Shane BieberIndians7.68
6Jose BerriosTwins7.52
7Lucas GiolitoWhite Sox7.23
8Frankie MontasAthletics7.16
8Trevor BauerIndians7.16
10John MeansOrioles7.10

NL Cy Young

No.NameTeam Cy Young Score
1Max ScherzerNationals11.26
2Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers10.83
3Zack GreinkeDiamondbacks9.33
4Luis CastilloReds9.10
5Mike SorokaBraves7.69
6Chris PaddackPadres7.64
7Kirby YatesPadres7.58
8Jacob deGromMets7.47
9Josh HaderBrewers7.33
10Stephen StrasburgNationals7.21

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 20 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 51.3
  • Overall median: 35.67

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 14.731
  • Overall median: 9.30

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 1.358
  • Overall median: 3.83

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.774
  • Overall median: 1.27

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 2.099
  • Overall median: 1.09

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Reliever of the Year –> Cy Young = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.79

Reliever of the Year –> MVP = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.72

AL Reliever of the Year

No.NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Liam HendriksAthletics8.85
2Ryan PresslyAstros8.49
3Shane GreeneTigers8.27
4Ken GilesBlue Jays8.19

NL Reliever of the Year

No.NameTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Kirby YatesPadres9.60
2Josh HaderBrewers9.28
3Scott ObergRockies8.44
4Will SmithGiants7.92

Rookie of the Year

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie batters…

Games played: 10%

*Note: minimum = 15 games played

OPS: 30%

AVG: 15%

HR: 20%

RBI: 12.5%

Def: 10%

*Note: maximum: 5.9

SB: 2.5%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie starters…

IP: 35%

*Note: minimum = 50 IP

SO: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for rookie relievers…

IP: 25%

*Note: minimum = 20 IP

K/9: 20%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

Conversion Factors

Cy Young Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Cy Young Score * 0.97

Reliever of the Year Score –> Rookie of the Year Score = Reliever of the Year Score * 0.83

Two-Way Player Score (Adjusted MVP Score + Cy Young Score) –> Rookie of the Year Score = Two-Way Player Score * 0.70

AL Rookie of the Year

No.NameTeamROY Score
1John MeansOrioles6.89
2Brandon LoweRays6.66
3Daniel VogelbachMariners6.48
4Michael ChavisRed Sox6.11
5Yordan AlvarezAstros6.01

NL Rookie of the Year

No.NameTeamROY Score
1Pete AlonsoMets8.23
2Mike SorokaBraves7.46
3Chris PaddackPadres7.41
4Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres6.99
5Alex VerdugoDodgers6.53

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