Awards Projector – Updated

Last updated: May 23rd (before the games for that day)

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who would win the MVP if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, and Fireman (reliever of the year) leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (every other week). Here is a spreadsheet that I created which contains each players’ specific stats, scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/CY_YOUNG/FIREMAN)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers that you’ll find below were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category…

Hitters (minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 50.1
  • Overall median: 46

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 16.1
  • Overall median: 7

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 40.9
  • Overall median: 23.5

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.075
  • Overall median: .7985

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3366
  • Overall median: .2615

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 10.4
  • Overall median: 2

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 7.09
  • Overall average: 0.2

*Note: maximum for the system is 3.4

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 35%

OPS: 15%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 15%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.PlayerTeamMVP Score
1George SpringerAstros9.23
2Alex BregmanAstros9.11
3Joey GalloRangers8.75
4Adalberto MondesiRoyals8.56
5Mike TroutAngels8.53
6Gleyber TorresYankees8.30
7Matt ChapmanAthletics8.22
8Carlos CorreaAstros8.19
9Xander BogaertsRed Sox8.18
9Michael BrantleyAstros8.17
11Eddie RosarioTwins8.16
12Alex GordonRoyals7.88
13Hunter DozierRoyals7.80
14Jorge PolancoTwins7.76
15Yoan MoncadaWhite Sox7.75

NL MVP

No.PlayerTeamMVP Score
1Cody BellingerDodgers10.54
2Christian YelichBrewers9.54
3Javier BaezCubs8.85
4Eugenio SuarezReds8.60
5Nolan ArenadoRockies8.46
6Trevor StoryRockies8.44
7Paul DeJongCardinals8.40
8Josh BellPirates8.36
9Ronald Acuna Jr.Braves8.35
10Peter AlonsoMets8.31
11Marcell OzunaCardinals8.27
12Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.20
13Max MuncyDodgers8.10
13Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks8.10
15Bryce HarperPhillies8.01

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 40 IP)

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 68.7
  • Overall median: 55.67

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 83.2
  • Overall median: 54

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.243
  • Overall median: 3.67

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.89
  • Overall median: 1.20

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 45%

SO: 10%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

AL Cy Young

No.PlayerTeamCy Young Score
1Justin VerlanderAstros11.09
2Tyler GlasnowRays9.03
3Frankie MontasAthletics7.68
4Martin PerezTwins7.61
5Mike MinorRangers7.53
6Jake OdorizziTwins7.50
7Ryan Pressly (RP)Astros7.40
8Domingo GermanYankees7.09
9Roberto Osuna (RP)Astros7.03
10Emilio Pagan (RP)Rays6.74
11Charlie MortonRays6.51
12Shane BieberIndians6.45
13Matt Barnes (RP)Red Sox6.37
14Matthew BoydTigers6.30
15Brad Hand (RP)Indians6.16

NL Cy Young

No.PlayerTeamCy Young Score
1Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers11.34
2Mike SorokaBraves10.58
3Chris PaddackPadres9.82
4Zack GreinkeDiamondbacks8.72
5Luis CastilloReds8.64
6Caleb SmithMarlins8.55
7Jordan LylesPirates7.83
8Stephen StrasburgNationals7.06
9Zach EflinPhillies6.79
10Josh Hader (RP)Brewers6.66
11Kirby Yates (RP)Padres6.52
12Zach DaviesBrewers6.50
13Max ScherzerNationals6.47
14Patrick CorbinNationals6.44
15Jon LesterCubs6.36

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 15 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 28.893
  • Overall median: 20

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 15.334
  • Overall median: 9.235

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 0.832
  • Overall median: 3.44

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.622
  • Overall median: 1.22

pLI (according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten: 2.209
  • Overall median: 1.03

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 25%

K/9: 25%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

pLI: 10%

AL Reliever of the Year

No.PlayerTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Ryan PresslyAstros8.81
2Roberto OsunaAstros8.37
3Emilio PaganRays8.02
4Matt BarnesRed Sox7.59
5Brad HandIndians7.33
6Shane GreeneTigers7.27
7Ken Giles Blue Jays7.25
8Marcus WaldenRed Sox7.15

NL Reliever of the Year

No.PlayerTeamReliever of the Year Score
1Josh HaderBrewers7.92
2Kirby YatesPadres7.76
3Felipe VazquezPirates7.18
4John GantCardinals6.69
5Amir GarrettReds6.57
6Francisco LirianoPirates6.50
7Hector NerisPhillies6.46
8Greg HollandDiamondbacks6.16

Featured Photo: Getty Images

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