Awards Projector – Updated

Last updated: May 15th (before the games for that day)

The “Awards Projector” seeks to estimate/project who would win the MVP if the season were to end on “x” date. It consists of MVP, Cy Young, and Fireman (reliever of the year) leaderboards. The system will be updated on a regular basis (every other week). Here is a spreadsheet that I created which contains each players’ specific stats, scores. I highly recommended taking a look at it…

Rankings (link to spreadsheet: https://www.icloud.com/numbers/0ipDlbBEpkan4J8w2eH6TleOQ#MVP/CY_YOUNG/FIREMAN)

Also, it’s worth noting that the stats I collected for hitters, starters, and relievers that you’ll find below were used to calculate appropriate coefficients (weights in a way) for each category…

Hitters (minimum: 30 G)

Games played (G)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” hitters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 43.1
  • Overall median: 39

Home runs (HR)

  • Average of top ten: 13.4
  • Overall median: 6

Runs batted in (RBI)

  • Average of top ten: 37.1
  • Overall median: 21

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

  • Average of top ten: 1.0713
  • Overall median: .804

Batting average (AVG)

  • Average of top ten: .3424
  • Overall median: .265

Stolen bases (SB)

  • Average of top ten: 9.4
  • Overall median: 1

Defensive runs above average (Def; according to FanGraphs)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” defenders on FanGraphs): 5.42
  • Overall median: 0.3

*Note: maximum for the system is 2.7

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for hitters…

Games played: 35%

OPS: 15%

AVG: 15%

HR: 15%

RBI: 15%

Def: 10%

SB: 2.5%

AL MVP

No.PlayerTeamMVP Score
1George SpringerAstros9.54
2Alex BregmanAstros9.15
3Eddie RosarioTwins8.56
4Mike TroutAngels8.37
5Xander BogaertsRed Sox8.32
5Michael BrantleyAstros8.32
7Matt ChapmanAthletics8.29
8Adalberto MondesiRoyals8.08
9Carlos CorreaAstros8.07
9Alex GordonRoyals8.07
11Joey GalloRangers7.91
12Elvis AndrusRangers7.90
13Jorge Polanco Twins7.85
14Hunter DozierRoyals7.83
15Whit MerrifieldRoyals7.77

NL MVP

No.PlayerTeamMVP Score
1Cody BellingerDodgers10.64
2Christian YelichBrewers9.52
3Nolan ArenadoRockies8.98
4Javier BaezCubs8.87
5Paul DeJongCardinals8.66
6Eugenio SuarezReds8.45
7Ketel MarteDiamondbacks8.29
8Trevor StoryRockies8.28
9Josh BellPirates 8.20
10Manny MachadoPadres8.06
11Peter AlonsoMets8.03
12Eduardo EscobarDiamondbacks7.91
13David PeraltaDiamondbacks7.88
14Dansby SwansonBraves7.84
15Max MuncyDodgers7.83

Starting Pitchers (minimum: 30 IP)

Innings pitched (IP)

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” starters on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 57.7
  • Overall median: 48.33

Strikeouts (SO)

  • Average of top ten: 71.6
  • Overall median: 45

Earned-run average (ERA)

  • Average of top ten: 2.065
  • Overall median: 3.78

Walk and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

  • Average of top ten: 0.896
  • Overall median: 1.22

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for starting pitchers…

IP: 45%

SO: 10%

ERA: 30%

WHIP: 15%

AL Cy Young

No.PlayerTeamCy Young Score
1Justin VerlanderAstros9.49
2Tyler GlasnowRays9.33
3Jake OdorizziRays7.75
4Charlie MortonRays7.74
5Mike MinorRangers7.66
6Trevor BauerIndians7.48
7Ryan Pressly (RP)Astros7.41
8Martin PerezTwins7.35
9Matthew BoydTigers7.31
10Jose BerriosTwins7.30

NL Cy Young

No.PlayerTeamCy Young Score
1Hyun-Jin RyuDodgers10.70
2Luis CastilloReds9.97
3Chris PaddackPadres9.52
4Caleb Smith Marlins8.72
5Jon LesterCubs8.63
6Zach DaviesBrewers7.97
7Zach EflinPhillies7.74
8Zack Greinke Diamondbacks7.68
9John Gant (RP)Cardinals 7.09
9Jordan LylesPirates7.04

Relief Pitchers (minimum: 15 IP)

IP

  • Average of top ten (among “qualified” relievers on FanGraphs for all categories unless specified otherwise): 25.03
  • Overall median: 17.33

Strikeouts per nine innings (K/9)

  • Average of top ten: 17.14
  • Overall median: 9.69

ERA

  • Average of top ten: 0.729
  • Overall median: 3.38

WHIP

  • Average of top ten: 0.642
  • Overall median: 1.20

The “Awards Projector” is weighted accordingly for relievers…

IP: 30%

K/9: 30%

ERA: 25%

WHIP: 15%

AL Reliever of the Year

No.PlayerTeamFireman Score
1Ryan PresslyAstros8.79
2Roberto OsunaAstros8.44
3Matt BarnesRed Sox8.30
4Kirby YatesPadres8.25
5Sam GaviglioBlue jays7.76

NL Reliever of the Year

No.PlayerTeamFireman Score
1John GantCardinals8.41
2Felipe VazquezPirates7.78
3John BrebbiaCardinals7.46
4Kirby YatesPadres7.36
5Josh HaderBrewers7.31

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