Contract Analysis: Washington Capitals

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Washington Capitals

Forwards

RW T.J. Oshie (age 31)

  • Games played: 30
  • Points: 16 (11 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.39 (1.39 points / $0.5 million)

RW Thomas Wilson (age 24)

  • Games played: 22
  • Points: 20 (12 goals and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.166666 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.94 

RW Brett Connolly (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 24 (9 goals and 15 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 8

RW Dmitrij Jaskin (age 25)

  • Games played: 27
  • Points: 7 (1 goal and 6 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.1 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.18

RW Devante Smith-Pelly (age 26)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 8 (4 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1 million
  • Contract value factor: 4

C Evgeny Kuznetsov (age 26)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 36 (7 goals and 29 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $7.8 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.31

C Nicklas Backstrom (age 30)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 44 (10 goals and 34 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6.7 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.28

C Lars Eller (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 18 (6 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.57

C Nic Dowd (age 28)

  • Games played: 33
  • Points: 13 (4 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 10

C Chandler Stephenson (age 24)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 9 (5 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.92

LW Alex Ovechkin (age 33)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 47 (30 goals and 17 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $9.538462 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.46

LW Andre Burakovsy (age 23)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 9 (5 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.5

LW Jakub Vrana (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 21 (12 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.863333 million
  • Contract value factor: 12.16

LW Travis Boyd (age 25)

  • Games played: 22
  • Points: 11 (4 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.8 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.88

Defensemen

D John Carlson (age 28)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 39 (6 goals and 33 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $8 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.44

D Matt Niskanen (age 31)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 16 (5 goals and 11 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.39

D Dmitry Orlov (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 12 (2 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.1 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.18

D Michal Kempny (age 28)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 15 (5 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.94

D Brooks Orpik (age 38)

  • Games played: 14
  • Points: 3 (1 goal and 2 assists)
  • Base salary: $1 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.5

D Madison Bowey (age 23)

  • Games played: 29
  • Points: 6 (1 goal and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1 million
  • Contract value factor: 3

D Jonas Siegenthaler (age 21)

  • Games played: 15
  • Points: 3 (0 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.714166 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.94

D Christian Djoos (age 24)

  • Games played: 28
  • Points: 4 (0 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.08

Goalies

G Braden Holtby (age 29)

  • Games played: 29
  • Wins: 16
  • Total cap hit: $6.1 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.31 (1.31 wins / $0.5 million)

G Pheonix Copley (age 26)

  • Games played: 14
  • Wins: 9
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.92

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. LW Jakub Vrana (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 12.16

2. C Nic Dowd (age 28)

  • Games played: 33
  • Contract value factor: 10

3. RW Brett Connolly (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 8

4. C Chandler Stephenson (age 24)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 6.92

5. LW Travis Boyd (age 25)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 6.88

6. RW Devante Smith-Pelly (age 26)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 4

7. C Nicklas Backstrom (age 30)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 3.28

8. RW Dmitrij Jaskin (age 25)

  • Games played: 27
  • Contract value factor: 3.18

9. C Lars Eller (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.57

10. LW Alex Ovechkin (age 33)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.46

11. C Evgeny Kuznetsov (age 26)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 2.31

12. RW Thomas Wilson (age 24)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 1.94 

13. LW Andre Burakovsy (age 23)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 1.5

14. RW T.J. Oshie (age 31)

  • Games played: 30
  • Contract value factor: 1.39

Defensemen

1. D Christian Djoos (age 24)

  • Games played: 28
  • Contract value factor: 3.08

2. D Madison Bowey (age 23)

  • Games played: 29
  • Contract value factor: 3

3. D Jonas Siegenthaler (age 21)

  • Games played: 15
  • Contract value factor: 2.94

4. D John Carlson (age 28)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 2.44

5. D Brooks Orpik (age 38)

  • Games played: 14
  • Contract value factor: 1.5

6. D Matt Niskanen (age 31)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 1.39

7. D Dmitry Orlov (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.18

8. D Michal Kempny (age 28)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 0.94

Goalies

1. G Pheonix Copley (age 26)

  • Games played: 14
  • Contract value factor: 6.92

2. G Braden Holtby (age 29)

  • Games played: 29
  • Contract value factor: 1.31

Average forwards contract value factor (14): 4.76

Average defensemen contract value factor (8): 1.93

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 4.12

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(4.76 * 14) + (1.93 * 8) + (4.12 * 2)] / 24 = (66.59 + 15.47 + 8.23) / 24 = 3.76

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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