Contract Analysis: Toronto Maple Leafs

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forwards

RW Connor Brown (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 15 (3 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.1 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.57 (3.57 points / $0.5 million)

RW Mitchell Marner (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 55 (15 goals and 40 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.894167 million
  • Contract value factor: 30.76

RW Kasperi Kapanen (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 25 (14 goals and 11 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.863333 million
  • Contract value factor: 14.48

@RW Nathan Horton (age 33)

  • Games played: 0
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $5.3 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

C John Tavares (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 47 (27 goals and 20 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $11 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.14

C William Nylander (age 22)

  • Games played: 13
  • Points: 3 (1 goal and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $10.2 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.15

C Nazem Kadri (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 25 (9 goals and 16 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.78

C Zach Hyman (age 26)

  • Games played: 32
  • Points: 15 (7 goals and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.33

C Par Lindholm (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 11 (1 goal and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 5.95

C Auston Matthews (age 21)

  • Games played: 27
  • Points: 39 (20 goals and 19 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 21.08

C Frederik Gauthier (age 23)

  • Games played: 32
  • Points: 7 (2 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.675 million
  • Contract value factor: 5.19

C Tyler Ennis (age 28)

  • Games played: 33
  • Points: 11 (7 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 8.46

LW Patrick Marleau (age 39)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 20 (10 goals and 19 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.6

LW Andreas Johnsson (age 23)

  • Games played: 36
  • Points: 19 (9 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.7875 million
  • Contract value factor: 12.06

LW Trevor Moore (age 23)

  • Games played: 6
  • Points: 3 (1 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.62

Defensemen

D Morgan Rielly (age 24)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 45 (13 goals and 32 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.5

D Nikita Zaitsev (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 3 (0 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.33

D Jake Gardiner (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 23 (2 goals and 21 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.05 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.84

D Ron Hainsey (age 37)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 13 (3 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.17

D Igor Ozhiganov (age 25)

  • Games played: 34
  • Points: 6 (2 goals and 4 assists)
  • Base salary: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.24

D Travis Dermott (age 21)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 12 (2 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.863333 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.95

D Martin Marcinin (age 26)

  • Games played: 8
  • Points: 1 (0 goals and 1 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $0.8 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.625

D Justin Holl (age 26)

  • Games played: 2
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $0.675 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

Goalies

G Frederik Andersen (age 28)

  • Games played: 30
  • Wins: 20
  • Total cap hit: $5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2 (2 wins / $0.5 million)

G Garret Sparks (age 25)

  • Games played: 10
  • Wins: 6
  • Total cap hit: $0.675 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.44

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. RW Mitchell Marner (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 30.76

2. C Auston Matthews (age 21)

  • Games played: 27
  • Contract value factor: 21.08

3. RW Kasperi Kapanen (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 14.48

4. LW Andreas Johnsson (age 23)

  • Games played: 36
  • Contract value factor: 12.06

5. C Tyler Ennis (age 28)

  • Games played: 33
  • Contract value factor: 8.46

6. LW Trevor Moore (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 6.03

7. C Par Lindholm (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 5.95

8. C Frederik Gauthier (age 23)

  • Games played: 32
  • Contract value factor: 5.19

9. RW Connor Brown (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 3.57

10. C Zach Hyman (age 26)

  • Games played: 32
  • Contract value factor: 3.33

11. C Nazem Kadri (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.78

12. C John Tavares (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.14

13. LW Patrick Marleau (age 39)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.6

14. C William Nylander (age 22)

  • Games played: 13
  • Contract value factor: 0.15

15. @RW Nathan Horton (age 33)

  • Games played: 0
  • Contract value factor: 0

Defensemen

1. D Travis Dermott (age 21)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 6.95

2. D Morgan Rielly (age 24)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 4.5

3. D Igor Ozhiganov (age 25)

  • Games played: 34
  • Contract value factor: 3.24

4. D Jake Gardiner (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.84

5. D Ron Hainsey (age 37)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.17

6. D Martin Marcinin (age 26)

  • Games played: 8
  • Contract value factor: 0.63

7. D Nikita Zaitsev (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 0.33

8. D Justin Holl (age 26)

  • Games played: 2
  • Contract value factor: 0

Goalies

1. G Garret Sparks (age 25)

  • Games played: 10
  • Contract value factor: 4.44

2. G Frederik Andersen (age 28)

  • Games played: 30
  • Contract value factor: 2

Average forwards contract value factor (15): 7.54

Average defensemen contract value factor (8): 2.58

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 3.22

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(2.79 * 15) + (3.03 * 8) + (0.89 * 2)] / 25 = (113.17 + 20.66 + 6.44) / 25 = 5.61

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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