Contract Analysis: Edmonton Oilers

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)
  • A third formula will be used to calculate the cap hit of players who are acquired from another team (for the purpose of this investigation, we will assume that the team who acquires player A will hold onto him for the rest of the season): 186 days (length of hockey season) – d days with former team; days with former team / 186 days = pp * total cap hit for 2019 = a

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade less than 5 days before their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Edmonton Oilers

Forwards

RW Tobias Rieder (age 25)

  • Games played: 28
  • Points: 7 (0 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.75 (1.75 points / $0.5 million)

RW Zack Kassian (age 27)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 4 (2 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.95 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.03

RW Jesse Puljujarvi (age 20)

  • Games played: 30
  • Points: 5 (3 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.70

RW Alex Chiasson (age 28)

  • Games played: 32
  • Points: 20 (16 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 15.38

C Connor McDavid (age 21)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 61 (23 goals and 38 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $12.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.44

C Leon Draisaitl (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 51 (22 goals and 29 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $8.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 3

C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 36 (14 goals and 22 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6 million
  • Contract value factor: 3

C Kyle Brodziak (age 35)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 5 (3 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.15 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.17

LW Milan Lucic (age 30)

  • Games played: 17
  • Points: 8 (1 goal and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.67

LW Jujhar Khaira (age 24)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 13 (2 goals and 11 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.675 million
  • Contract value factor: 9.63

*LW Brad Malone (age 29)

  • Games played: 7
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

Defensemen

D Adam Larsson (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 12 (1 goal and 11 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.166666 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.44

^D Alex Petrovic (age 26)

  • Games played: 3
  • Points: 1 (0 goals and 1 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $1.02 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.49

^D Brandon Manning (age 28)

  • Games played: 3
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $1.17 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

D Kris Russell (age 31)

  • Games played: 31
  • Points: 8 (1 goal and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4 million
  • Contract value factor: 1

D Darnell Nurse (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 18 (5 goals and 13 assists)
  • Base salary: $3.2 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.81

D Matthew Benning (age 24)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 8 (1 goal and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.9 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.11

D Kevin Gravel (age 26)

  • Games played: 24
  • Points: 2 (0 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.7 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.43

D Oscar Klefbom (age 25)

  • Games played: 31
  • Points: 15 (3 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.167 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.80

Goalies

G Cam Talbot (age 31)

  • Games played: 22
  • Wins: 7
  • Total cap hit: $4.166666 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.84 (0.84 wins / $0.5 million)

G Mikko Koskinen (age 30)

  • Games played: 22
  • Wins: 12
  • Total cap hit: $2.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.4

Forwards

1. RW Alex Chiasson (age 28)

  • Games played: 32
  • Contract value factor: 15.38

2. LW Jujhar Khaira (age 24)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 9.63

3. C Leon Draisaitl (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 3

3. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 3

5. RW Jesse Puljujarvi (age 20)

  • Games played: 30
  • Contract value factor: 2.70

6. C Connor McDavid (age 21)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 2.44

7. C Kyle Brodziak (age 35)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 2.17

8. RW Tobias Rieder (age 25)

  • Games played: 28
  • Contract value factor: 1.75

9. RW Zack Kassian (age 27)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 1.03

10. LW Milan Lucic (age 30)

  • Games played: 17
  • Contract value factor: 0.67

11. *LW Brad Malone (age 29)

  • Games played: 7
  • Contract value factor: 0

Defensemen

1. D Darnell Nurse (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.81

2. D Matthew Benning (age 24)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 2.11

3. D Oscar Klefbom (age 25)

  • Games played: 31
  • Contract value factor: 1.80

4. D Adam Larsson (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.44

5. D Kevin Gravel (age 26)

  • Games played: 24
  • Contract value factor: 1.43

6. D Kris Russell (age 31)

  • Games played: 31
  • Contract value factor: 1

7. ^D Alex Petrovic (age 26)

  • Games played: 3
  • Contract value factor: 0.49

8. ^D Brandon Manning (age 28)

  • Games played: 3
  • Contract value factor: 0

Goalies

1. G Mikko Koskinen (age 30)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 2.4

2. G Cam Talbot (age 31)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 0.84

Average forwards contract value factor (11): 3.80

Average defensemen contract value factor (8): 1.39

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 1.62

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(3.80 * 11) + (1.39 * 8) + (2.04 * 2)] / 21 = (41.77 + 11.08 + 1.62) / 21 = 2.59

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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