Contract Analysis: Colorado Avalanche

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Colorado Avalanche

Forwards

RW Sven Andrighetto (age 25)

  • Games played: 23
  • Points: 6 (3 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.4 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.14 (2.14 points / $0.5 million)

RW Mikko Rantanen (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 62 (17 goals and 45 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.894167 million
  • Contract value factor: 34.67

C Nathan MacKinnon (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 60 (24 goals and 36 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6.3 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.76

C Carl Soderberg (age 32)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 23 (11 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.42

C Colin Wilson (age 28)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 13 (8 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.9375 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.65

C J.T Compher (age 23)

  • Games played: 25
  • Points: 17 (10 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 9.19

C Alexander Kerfoot (age 24)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 23 (6 goals and 17 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 12.43

C Sheldon Dries (age 25)

  • Games played: 20
  • Points: 4 (2 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

*C Dominic Toninato (age 24)

  • Games played: 30
  • Points: 13 (6 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 7.03

C Vladislav Kamenev (age 22)

  • Games played: 23
  • Points: 5 (2 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.833333
  • Contract value factor: 3.00

*C Tyson Jost (age 20)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 13 (6 golas and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.885833
  • Contract value factor: 7.34

LW Gabriel Landeskog (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 45 (24 goals and 21 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.571429 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.04

LW Matt Calvert (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 12 (6 goals and 6 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.85 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.11

LW Matt Nieto (age 25)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 14 (4 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.975 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.54

LW Gabriel Bourque (age 28)

  • Games played: 34
  • Points: 4 (0 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.95 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

Defensemen

D Erik Johnson (age 30)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 11 (2 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.92

D Tyson Barrie (age 27)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 27 (5 goals and 22 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.45

D Ian Cole (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 9 (1 goal and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.06

D Patrik Nemeth (age 26)

  • Games played: 36
  • Points: 5 (1 goal and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 1

D Nikita Zadorov (age 23)

  • Games played: 34
  • Points: 5 (3 goals and 2 assists)
  • Base salary: $2.15 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.16

D Mark Barberio (age 28)

  • Games played: 8
  • Points: 1 (1 goal and 0 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.45 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.34

D Samuel Girard (age 20)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 13 (2 goals and 11 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.728333 million
  • Contract value factor: 8.92

D Ryan Graves (age 23)

  • Games played: 4
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 millon
  • Contract value factor: 0

@D Conor Timmins (age 30)

  • Games played: 0
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $0.925
  • Contract value factor: 0

Goalies

G Semyon Varlamov (age 30)

  • Games played: 25
  • Wins: 11
  • Total cap hit: $5.9 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.93 (0.93 wins / $0.5 million)

G Phillip Grubauer (age 26)

  • Games played: 18
  • Wins: 8
  • Total cap hit: $3.333333 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.20

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. RW Mikko Rantanen (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 34.67

2. C Alexander Kerfoot (age 24)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 12.43

3. C J.T Compher (age 23)

  • Games played: 25
  • Contract value factor: 9.19

4. *C Tyson Jost (age 20)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 7.34

5. *C Dominic Toninato (age 24)

  • Games played: 30
  • Contract value factor: 7.03

6. C Nathan MacKinnon (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 4.76

7. LW Gabriel Landeskog (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 4.04

8. LW Matt Nieto (age 25)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 3.54

9. C Vladislav Kamenev (age 22)

  • Games played: 23
  • Contract value factor: 3.00

10. C Carl Soderberg (age 32)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.42

11. C Sheldon Dries (age 25)

  • Games played: 20
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

12. LW Gabriel Bourque (age 28)

  • Games played: 34
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

13. RW Sven Andrighetto (age 25)

  • Games played: 23
  • Contract value factor: 2.14

14. LW Matt Calvert (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.11

15. C Colin Wilson (age 28)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 1.65

Defensemen

1. D Samuel Girard (age 20)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 8.92

2. D Tyson Barrie (age 27)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 2.45

3. D Nikita Zadorov (age 23)

  • Games played: 34
  • Contract value factor: 1.16

4. D Ian Cole (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.06

5. D Patrik Nemeth (age 26)

  • Games played: 36
  • Contract value factor: 1

6. D Erik Johnson (age 30)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 0.92

7. D Mark Barberio (age 28)

  • Games played: 8
  • Contract value factor: 0.34

8. D Ryan Graves (age 23)

  • Games played: 4
  • Contract value factor: 0

9. @D Conor Timmins (age 30)

  • Games played: 0
  • Contract value factor: 0

Goalies

1. G Phillip Grubauer (age 26)

  • Games played: 18
  • Contract value factor: 1.20

2. G Semyon Varlamov (age 30)

  • Games played: 25
  • Contract value factor: 0.93

Average forwards contract value factor (15): 6.58

Average defensemen contract value factor (9): 1.76

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 1.07

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(6.58 * 15) + (1.76 * 9) + (1.07 * 2)] / 26 = (98.64 + 15.85 + 2.13) / 26 = 4.49

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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