Contract Analysis: Buffalo Sabres

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Buffalo Sabres

Forwards

RW Kyle Okposo (age 30)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 16 (6 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.33 (1.33 points / $0.5 million)

RW Ryan Pominville (age 35)

  • Games played: 36
  • Points: 18 (9 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.6 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.61

C Jack Eichel (age 21)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 49 (15 goals and 34 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $10 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.45

C Sam Reinhart (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 40 (9 goals and 31 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 5.48

C Zemgus Girgensons (age 24)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 8 (3 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.6 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.5

C Casey Mittelstadt (age 19)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 11 (5 goals and 6 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 5.95

C Tage Thompson (age 20)

  • Games played: 34
  • Points: 8 (5 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.32

LW Jeff Skinner (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 41 (28 goals and 13 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.725 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.58

LW Vladimir Sobokta (age 31)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 6 (3 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.86

LW Conor Sheary (age 26)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 15 (7 goals and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.5

LW Johan Larsson (age 26)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 6 (4 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.475 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.03

LW Remi Elie (age 23)

  • Games played: 13
  • Points: 1 (0 goals and 1 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $0.735 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.68

LW Evan Rodrigues (age 25)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 11 (2 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 8.46

Defensemen

D Rasmus Ristolainen (age 23)

  • Games played: 30
  • Points: 25 (4 goals and 21 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.4 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.31

D Zach Bogosian (age 28)

  • Games played: 36
  • Points: 8 (2 goals and 6 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.142857 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.78

D Marco Scandella (age 28)

  • Games played: 32
  • Points: 7 (2 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.88

D Nathan Beaulieu (age 25)

  • Games played: 25
  • Points: 7 (3 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.4 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.46

D Matt Hunwick (age 33)

  • Games played: 2
  • Points: 0
  • Base salary: $2.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

D Jake McCabe (age 24)

  • Games played: 31
  • Points: 10 (2 goal and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.6 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.13

D Rasmus Dahlin (age 18)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 20 (4 goals and 16 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 10.81

D Lawrence Pilut (age 22)

  • Games played: 10
  • Points: 4 (0 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

D Casey Nelson (age 26)

  • Games played: 22
  • Points: 5 (1 goal and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.8125 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.08

Goalies

G Carter Hutton (age 32)

  • Games played: 28
  • Wins: 13
  • Total cap hit: $2.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.36 (2.36 wins / $0.5 million)

G Linus Ullmark (age 25)

  • Games played: 14
  • Wins: 9
  • Total cap hit: $0.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 6

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. LW Evan Rodrigues (age 25)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 8.46

2. C Casey Mittelstadt (age 19)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 5.95

3. C Sam Reinhart (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 5.48

4. C Tage Thompson (age 20)

  • Games played: 34
  • Contract value factor: 4.32

5. LW Jeff Skinner (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 3.58

6. C Zemgus Girgensons (age 24)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 2.5

6. LW Conor Sheary (age 26)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 2.5

8. C Jack Eichel (age 21)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 2.45

9. LW Johan Larsson (age 26)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 2.03

10. RW Ryan Pominville (age 35)

  • Games played: 36
  • Contract value factor: 1.61

11. RW Kyle Okposo (age 30)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.33

12. LW Vladimir Sobokta (age 31)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 0.86

13. LW Remi Elie (age 23)

  • Games played: 13
  • Contract value factor: 0.68

Defensemen

1. D Rasmus Dahlin (age 18)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 10.81

2. D Jake McCabe (age 24)

  • Games played: 31
  • Contract value factor: 3.13

3. D Casey Nelson (age 26)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 3.08

4. D Rasmus Ristolainen (age 23)

  • Games played: 30
  • Contract value factor: 2.31

5. D Lawrence Pilut (age 22)

  • Games played: 10
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

6. D Nathan Beaulieu (age 25)

  • Games played: 25
  • Contract value factor: 1.46

7. D Marco Scandella (age 28)

  • Games played: 32
  • Contract value factor: 0.88

8. D Zach Bogosian (age 28)

  • Games played: 36
  • Contract value factor: 0.78

9. D Matt Hunwick (age 33)

  • Games played: 2
  • Contract value factor: 0

Goalies

1. G Linus Ullmark (age 25)

  • Games played: 14
  • Contract value factor: 6

2. G Carter Hutton (age 32)

  • Games played: 28
  • Contract value factor: 2.36

Average forwards contract value factor (13): 3.21

Average defensemen contract value factor (9): 2.73

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 4.18

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(3.21 * 13) + (2.73 * 9) + (4.18 * 2)] / 24 = (41.75 + 24.61 + 8.36) / 24 = 3.11

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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