Contract Analysis: Arizona Coyotes

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)
  • A third formula will be used to calculate the cap hit of players who are acquired from another team (for the purpose of this investigation, we will assume that the team who acquires player A will hold onto him for the rest of the season): 186 days (length of hockey season) – d days with former team; days with former team / 186 days = pp * total cap hit for 2019 = a

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

^ = a player who was acquired from another team during the season

# = a player who has previously retired, but is still under contract

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Arizona Coyotes

Forwards

RW Richard Panik (age 27)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 14 (7 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.8 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.5 (2.5 points / $0.5 million)

RW Christian Fischer (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 12 (10 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.821666 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.30

RW Josh Archibald (age 25)

  • Games played: 28
  • Points: 7 (3 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.675 million
  • Contract value factor: 5.19

RW Conor Garland (age 22)

  • Games played: 14
  • Points: 5 (3 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.68 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.68

# RW Marian Hossa (age 39)

  • Games played: 0
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $5.275 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

RW Michael Grabner (age 30)

  • Games played: 25
  • Points: 11 (6 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.35 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.64

C Derek Stepan (age 28)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 17 (8 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.31

C Alex Galchenyuk (age 24)

  • Games played: 29
  • Points: 18 (6 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.9 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.84

C Vincent Hinostroza (age 24)

  • Games played: 31
  • Points: 12 (4 goals and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 4

C Nick Cousins (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 13 (4 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.5

C Clayton Keller (age 20)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 29 (8 goals and 21 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.885833 million
  • Contract value factor: 16.89

@C Dave Bolland (age 32)

  • Games played: 0
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $5.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

C Brad Richardson (age 33)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 15 (11 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 6

^C Nick Schmaltz (age 22)

  • Games played: 17
  • Points: 14 (5 goal and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.656 million
  • Contract value factor: 10.67

@Christian Dvorak (age 22)

  • Games played: 0
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $0.839166
  • Contract value factor: 0

LW Lawson Crouse (age 21)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 8 (6 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.894167 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.47

LW Mario Kempe (age 30)

  • Games played: 20
  • Points: 2 (1 goal and 1 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $0.7 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.43

*LW Michael Bunting (age 23)

  • Games played: 4
  • Points: 1 (1 goal and 0 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.715 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.70

Defensemen

D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 22 (5 goals and 17 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2

D Alex Goligoski (age 33)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 14 (2 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.475 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.28

D Niklas Hjalmarsson (age 31)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 4 (0 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.1 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.488

D Kevin Connauton (age 28)

  • Games played: 33
  • Points: 5 (0 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.375 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.82

D Jakob Chychrun (age 20)

  • Games played: 23
  • Points: 7 (3 goals and 4 assists)
  • Base salary: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.78

D Ilya Lyubushkin (age 24)

  • Games played: 22
  • Points: 2 (0 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.08

D Jordan Oesterle (age 26)

  • Games played: 32
  • Points: 7 (2 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 5.38

D Jason Demers (age 30)

  • Games played: 18
  • Points: 3 (1 goal and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.9375 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.38

Goalies

G Darcy Kuemper (age 28)

  • Games played: 19
  • Wins: 5
  • Total cap hit: $1.85 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.35 (1.35 wins / $0.5 million)

G Antti Raanta (age 29)

  • Games played: 12
  • Wins: 5
  • Total cap hit: $4.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.59

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. C Clayton Keller (age 20)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 16.89

2. ^C Nick Schmaltz (age 22)

  • Games played: 17
  • Contract value factor: 10.67

3. C Nick Cousins (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 6.5

4. RW Christian Fischer (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 6.30

5. C Brad Richardson (age 33)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 6

6. RW Josh Archibald (age 25)

  • Games played: 28
  • Contract value factor: 5.19

7. LW Lawson Crouse (age 21)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 4.47

8. C Vincent Hinostroza (age 24)

  • Games played: 31
  • Contract value factor: 4

9. RW Conor Garland (age 22)

  • Games played: 14
  • Contract value factor: 3.68

10. RW Richard Panik (age 27)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 2.5

11. C Alex Galchenyuk (age 24)

  • Games played: 29
  • Contract value factor: 1.84

12. RW Michael Grabner (age 30)

  • Games played: 25
  • Contract value factor: 1.64

13. LW Mario Kempe (age 30)

  • Games played: 20
  • Contract value factor: 1.43

14. C Derek Stepan (age 28)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 1.31

15. *LW Michael Bunting (age 23)

  • Games played: 4
  • Contract value factor: 0.70

16. @Christian Dvorak (age 22)

  • Games played: 0
  • Contract value factor: 0

17. # RW Marian Hossa (age 39)

  • Games played: 0
  • Contract value factor: 0

18. @C Dave Bolland (age 32)

  • Games played: 0
  • Contract value factor: 0

Defensemen

1. D Jordan Oesterle (age 26)

  • Games played: 32
  • Contract value factor: 5.38

2. D Jakob Chychrun (age 20)

  • Games played: 23
  • Contract value factor: 3.78

3. D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2

4. D Kevin Connauton (age 28)

  • Games played: 33
  • Contract value factor: 1.82

5. D Alex Goligoski (age 33)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 1.28

6. D Ilya Lyubushkin (age 24)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 1.08

7. D Niklas Hjalmarsson (age 31)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 0.49

8. D Jason Demers (age 30)

  • Games played: 18
  • Contract value factor: 0.38

Goalies

1. G Darcy Kuemper (age 28)

  • Games played: 19
  • Contract value factor: 1.35

2. G Antti Raanta (age 29)

  • Games played: 12
  • Contract value factor: 0.59

Average forwards contract value factor (18): 4.06

Average defensemen contract value factor (8): 2.03

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 0.97

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(4.06 * 18) + (2.03 * 8) + (0.97 * 3)] / 28 = (73.12 + 16.21 + 1.94) / 28 = 3.26

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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