What would it take for each team to snag Vladimir Guerrero Jr? NL East

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is f536255f01281229b08edd64c0bd4084.jpg

Toronto Blue Jays’ phenom Vladimir Guerrero Jr, son of former big leaguer Vladimir Guerrero, is the consensus #1 prospect in baseball. He plays 3B, but he will presumably move to 1B down the line. 

Vlad was born to play baseball and has stormed through the minors, blowing his competition away. He put up video game numbers at AA and AAA this past season as a 19-year-old…

AA

  • PAs: 266
  • AVG: .402
  • HRs: 14
  • BB rate: 7.9%
  • K rate: 10.2%

AAA

  • PAs: 126
  • AVG: .336
  • HRs: 6
  • BB rate: 11.7%
  • K rate: 7.8%

Steamer projects him to produce at a superstar level for the Jays in 2019…

  • PAs: 550
  • AVG: .306
  • HRs: 22
  • BB rate: 8.4%
  • K rate: 12.9%
  • WAR: 4.7

There is no doubt about it; Vlad Guerrero Jr is baseball’s next big thing. If you are remarkably not buying his unbelievable 2018 minor league stat-line and robust Steamer projections, then here is a clip I will let speak for itself…

In Fangraphs’ Update to Prospect Valuation, Guerrero was estimated to be worth $112 million in prospect value, which is highest among all minor leaguers (they also estimated value of non-top 100 prospects). He is the only prospect who was assigned a 70 FV on the 20-80 scouting scale

“The results are presented in present-day WAR and translated to a rough dollar figure based on $9 million as the cost of a win on the free-agent market. Keep in mind that the dollar figure isn’t a direct value, but rather equivalent value of a prospect relative to the free-agent market. Part of the reason prospects have such tremendous value is due to the suppressed salaries permitted by the CBA until a player has reached six years of service time. By translating the WAR figure into a monetary value, we can compare the value of prospects with the values of major-league players and their contracts. These values likely roughly approximate what an individual player might get as a signing bonus if he were declared a free agent and teams could only provide a signing bonus instead of a long-term contract.”

Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards

Now we will take a look at what types of packages teams would have to offer in order to match Guerrero’s $112 million prospect value:

Braves

CF Cristian Pache (60 FV; $53 million), RHP Michael Soroka (55 FV; $43 million), and LHP Kolby Allard (50 FV; $16 million) for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million)

or

CF Ender Inciarte ($43.9 million), 3B Austin Riley (55 FV; $43 million), RHP Bryce Wilson (50 FV; $22 million), and $3.1 million in cash for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million)

In order to most accurately gauge the surplus value of Ender Inciarte, we need to take into consideration a decline in production as he is in his late 20s (2019 is his age 28 season).

“a basic rule of thumb is that once a player gets to 30, you sort of expect them to lose about 0.5 WAR per year of value due to aging. Some players will age better or worse, but that’s an average estimate.”

Fangraphs’ Neil Weinberg

For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume Inciarte is worth 2.4 WAR annually from 2019-20, and the Braves pick up Inciarte’s option for the 2022 season.

Ender Inciarte’s Projected WAR (accounting for loss of 0.5 WAR / yr once he reaches the age of 30)

2019 (age 28 season): 2.4

2020: 2.4

2021 (age 30 season): 1.9

2022: 1.4

The Braves are paying him $5 million in 2019, $7 million in 2020, $8 million in 2021, and $9 million in his final season (2022). The calculations for Inciarte’s surplus monetary value can be seen below…

[(2.4 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $5 million] + [(2.4 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $7 million] + [(1.9 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $8 million] + [(1.4 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $9 million] = $16.6 million + $14.6 million + $9.1 million + $3.6 million = $43.9 million in surplus value

Marlins

CF Monte Harrison (50 FV; $26 million), 2B Isan Diaz (50 FV; $24 million), LHP Braxton Garrett (50 FV; $12 million), RHP Nick Neidert (50 FV; $12 million), RHP Sandy Alcantara (50 FV; $10 million), and CF Victor Victor Mesa RHP Jorge Guzman (45+; $6 million) for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million)

Mets

SS Andres Jimenez (55 FV; $42 million), SS Ronny Mauricio (50 FV; $19 million), LHP David Peterson (50 FV; $11 million), RHP Zack Wheeler ($19 million), and $0.9 million in cash for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million)

Zack Wheeler’s projected arbitration salary for 2019 is $5.3 million, per MLB Trade Rumors. Steamer projects him to worth 2.7 WAR. He is tentatively scheduled to become a free agent after the 2019 season (has one more season of control). The calculations for Wheeler’s surplus monetary value can be seen below…

(2.7 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $5.3 million = $19 million in surplus value

Nationals

CF Victor Robles (65 FV; $64 million) and SS Carter Kieboom (60 FV; $55 million) for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million), 3B Jordan Groshans (45 FV; $6 million), and $1 million in cash

Phillies

RHP Sixto Sanchez (60 FV; $53 million), CF Odubel Herrera ($34 million), and 3B Alec Bohm (50 FV; $25 million) for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million)

For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume Odubel Herrera is worth 2.0 WAR annually from 2019-21, and the Phillies pick up Herrera’s option for the 2022 season, but not for the 2023 season.

Odubel Herrera’s Projected WAR (accounting for loss of 0.5 WAR / yr once he reaches the age of 30)

2019 (age 27 season): 2.0

2020: 2.0

2021 (age 29 season): 2.0

2022: 1.5

2023 (age 31 season): 1.0

The Phillies are paying him $5 million in 2019, $7 million in 2020, $10 million in 2021, and $11.5 million the following season (2022). The calculations for Herrera’s surplus monetary value can be seen below…

[(2.0 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $5 million] + [(2.0 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $7 million] + [(2.0 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $10 million] + [(1.5 WAR * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $11.5 million] = $13 million + $11 million + $8 million + $2 million = $34 million in surplus value

or

RHP Adonis Medina (55 FV; $40 million), CF Adam Haseley (45+ FV; $8 million), LHP JoJo Romero (45+ FV; $6 million), 1B Jhailyn Ortiz (45 FV; $6 million), 2B Daniel Brito (45 FV; $6 million), RHP Enyel De Los Santos (45 FV; $4 million), RHP Spencer Howard (45 FV; $4 million), SS Arquimedes Gamboa (40+ FV; $4 million), SS Luis Garcia (40+ FV; $4 million), CF Mickey Moniak (40+ FV; $4 million), and $3.9 million in cash for 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (70 FV; $112 million)

5 comments

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s