Contract Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards

RW Ryan Callahan (age 33)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 10 (4 goals and 6 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.8 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.86 (0.86 points / $0.5 million)

RW Nikita Kucherov (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 69 (20 goals and 49 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.766666 million
  • Contract value factor: 7.24

RW Mathieu Joseph (age 21)

  • Games played: 35
  • Points: 14 (10 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.7425 million
  • Contract value factor: 9.43

C Steven Stamkos (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 46 (23 goals and 23 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.87 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.92

C Tyler Johnson (age 28)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 31 (18 goals and 13 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.1

C Alexander Killorn (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 22 (10 goals and 12 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.45 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.47

C Yanni Gourde (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 28 (11 goals and 17 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1 million
  • Contract value factor: 14

C Cedric Paquette (age 25)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 10 (8 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1 million
  • Contract value factor: 5

C Anthony Cirelli (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 16 (9 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.728333 million
  • Contract value factor: 10.98

C Brayden Point (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 54 (24 goals and 30 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.686667 million
  • Contract value factor: 39.32

C J.T. Miller (age 25)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 26 (7 goals and 19 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.48

LW Ondrej Palat (age 27)

  • Games played: 25
  • Points: 14 (4 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.3 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.32

LW Adam Erne (age 23)

  • Games played: 27
  • Points: 14 (6 goals and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.8 million
  • Contract value factor: 8.75

LW Danick Martel (age 23)

  • Games played: 4
  • Points: 1 (0 goals and 1 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $0.715 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.70

Defensemen

D Victor Hedman (age 27)

  • Games played: 34
  • Points: 25 (4 goals and 21 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $7.875 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.59

D Ryan McDonagh (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 24 (4 goals and 20 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.7 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.55

D Anton Stralman (age 32)

  • Games played: 24
  • Points: 12 (2 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.33

D Braydon Coburn (age 33)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 11 (3 goals and 8 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.7 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.49

D Dan Girardi (age 34)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 12 (3 goals and 9 assists)
  • Base salary: $3 million
  • Contract value factor: 2

D Mikhail Sergachev (age 20)

  • Games played: 39
  • Points: 13 (0 goals and 13 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.894167 million
  • Contract value factor: 7.27

D Erik Cernak (age 21)

  • Games played: 22
  • Points: 7 (0 goals and 7 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $0.701666 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.99

Goalies

G Andrei Vasilevski (age 24)

  • Games played: 21
  • Wins: 16
  • Total cap hit: $3.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.29 (2.29 wins / $0.5 million)

G Louis Domingue (age 26)

  • Games played: 19
  • Wins: 15
  • Total cap hit: $1.15 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.52

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. C Brayden Point (age 22)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 39.32

2. C Yanni Gourde (age 26)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 14

3. C Anthony Cirelli (age 21)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 10.98

4. RW Mathieu Joseph (age 21)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 9.43

5. LW Adam Erne (age 23)

  • Games played: 27
  • Contract value factor: 8.75

6. RW Nikita Kucherov (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 7.24

7. C Cedric Paquette (age 25)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 5

8. C Steven Stamkos (age 28)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 3.92

9. Tyler Johnson (age 28)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 3.1

10. C J.T. Miller (age 25)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 2.48

11. C Alexander Killorn (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.47

12. LW Ondrej Palat (age 27)

  • Games played: 25
  • Contract value factor: 1.32

13. RW Ryan Callahan (age 33)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 0.86

14. LW Danick Martel (age 23)

  • Games played: 4
  • Contract value factor: 0.70

Defensemen

1. D Mikhail Sergachev (age 20)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 7.27

2. D Erik Cernak (age 21)

  • Games played: 22
  • Contract value factor: 4.99

3. D Ryan McDonagh (age 29)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.55

4. D Dan Girardi (age 34)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 2

5. D Victor Hedman (age 27)

  • Games played: 34
  • Contract value factor: 1.59

6. D Braydon Coburn (age 33)

  • Games played: 39
  • Contract value factor: 1.49

7. D Anton Stralman (age 32)

  • Games played: 24
  • Contract value factor: 1.33

Goalies

1. G Louis Domingue (age 26)

  • Games played: 19
  • Contract value factor: 6.52

2. G Andrei Vasilevski (age 24)

  • Games played: 21
  • Contract value factor: 2.29

Average forwards contract value factor (14): 7.83

Average defensemen contract value factor (7): 3.03

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 4.41

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(7.83 * 14) + (3.03 * 7) + (4.41 * 2)] / 24 = (109.62 + 21.21 + 8.82) / 23 = 6.07

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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