Contract Analysis: Vegas Golden Knights

In the “Contract Analysis” series, we will be compiling a ranking of forwards, defenseman, and goalies according to their contract value factor (production / $0.5 million). First, players on individual teams will be looked at. These results will be combined to form an overall ranking (one for forwards, another for defensemen, and one for goalies).

It is important to note that the stats that are to be used are their midseason statistics (stats they have accrued when respective team has played 41 games / half an NHL season) and that their total cap hit, per Spotrac, will be utilized.

  • This first formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of forwards and defensemen: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; points / = contract value (p points / $0.5 million)
  • This second formula will be used to calculate the contract value factor of goalies: Total cap hit / $0.5 million = x; wins / x = contract value (g wins / $0.5 million)

Players will only be excluded if they…

  • are non-roster players OR
  • were acquired via trade within the 2 weeks leading up to their new team’s 41st game

* (asterisk) = a player who has been demoted to the AHL

@ (at sign) = a player, due to injury, has missed all of the 2018-19 season thus far.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

Metropolitan Division

Western Conference

Central Division

Pacific Division

Vegas Golden Knights

Forwards

RW Reilly Smith (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 26 (8 goals and 18 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.6 (2.6 points / $0.5 million)

RW Ryan Reaves (age 31)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 12 (7 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.775 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

RW Alex Tuch (age 22)

  • Games played: 33
  • Points: 29 (13 goals and 16 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.925 million
  • Contract value factor: 15.68

@RW David Clarkson (age 34)

  • Games played: 0
  • Points: 0
  • Total cap hit: $5.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 0

C Paul Stastny (age 32)

  • Games played: 11
  • Points: 7 (4 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $6.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.54

C William Karlsson (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 30 (15 goals and 15 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.25 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.86

C Jonathan Marchessault (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 29 (13 goals and 16 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.9

C Cody Eakin (age 27)

  • Games played: 38
  • Points: 21 (11 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.85 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.7

C Oscar Lindberg (age 26)

  • Games played: 19
  • Points: 7 (1 goal and 6 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.7 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.06

C Ryan Carpenter (age 27)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 8 (1 goal and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.15

C Max Pacioretty (age 29)

  • Games played: 30
  • Points: 19 (10 goals and 9 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $4.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.11

C Erik Haula (age 27)

  • Games played: 15
  • Points: 7 (2 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.27

LW Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (age 33)

  • Games played: 40
  • Points: 8 (4 goals and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.45 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.76

LW Tomas Nosek (age 26)

  • Games played: 37
  • Points: 9 (4 goals and 5 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.9625 million
  • Contract value factor: 4.68

LW William Carrier (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 9 (8 goals and 1 assist)
  • Total cap hit: $0.725 million
  • Contract value factor: 6.21

Defensemen

D Shea Theodore (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 19 (4 goals and 15 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $5.2 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.83

D Colin Miller (age 25)

  • Games played: 36
  • Points: 17 (2 goals and 15 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $3.875 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.19

D Brayden McNabb (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 7 (0 goals and 7 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.4

D Nate Schmidt (age 27)

  • Games played: 21
  • Points: 13 (3 goals and 10 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $2.225 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.92

D Nick Holden (age 31)

  • Games played: 41
  • Points: 12 (3 goals and 9 assists)
  • Base salary: $2.2 million
  • Contract value factor: 2.73

D Deryk Engelland (age 36)

  • Games played: 34
  • Points: 5 (1 goal and 4 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.5 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.67

D Jon Merrill (age 26)

  • Games played: 21
  • Points: 2 (0 goals and 2 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $1.375 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.73

D Brad Hunt (age 30)

  • Games played: 11
  • Points: 5 (2 goals and 3 assists)
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 3.85

Goalies

G Marc-Andre Fleury (age 33)

  • Games played: 35
  • Wins: 21
  • Total cap hit: $5.75 million
  • Contract value factor: 1.83 (1.83 wins / $0.5 million)

G Malcom Subban (age 24)

  • Games played: 7
  • Wins: 1
  • Total cap hit: $0.65 million
  • Contract value factor: 0.77

Contract Value Rankings

Forwards

1. RW Alex Tuch (age 22)

  • Games played: 33
  • Contract value factor: 15.68

2. LW William Carrier (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 6.21

3. C Ryan Carpenter (age 27)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 6.15

4. LW Tomas Nosek (age 26)

  • Games played: 37
  • Contract value factor: 4.68

5. C Jonathan Marchessault (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.9

6. C William Karlsson (age 25)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.86

7. LW Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (age 33)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 2.76

8. C Cody Eakin (age 27)

  • Games played: 38
  • Contract value factor: 2.7

9. RW Reilly Smith (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.6

10. RW Ryan Reaves (age 31)

  • Games played: 40
  • Contract value factor: 2.16

11. C Max Pacioretty (age 29)

  • Games played: 30
  • Contract value factor: 2.11

12. C Oscar Lindberg (age 26)

  • Games played: 19
  • Contract value factor: 2.06

13. C Erik Haula (age 27)

  • Games played: 15
  • Contract value factor: 1.27

14. C Paul Stastny (age 32)

  • Games played: 11
  • Contract value factor: 0.54

15. @RW David Clarkson (age 34)

  • Games played: 0
  • Contract value factor: 0

Defensemen

1. D Brad Hunt (age 30)

  • Games played: 11
  • Contract value factor: 3.85

2. D Nate Schmidt (age 27)

  • Games played: 21
  • Contract value factor: 2.92

3. D Nick Holden (age 31)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 2.73

4. D Colin Miller (age 25)

  • Games played: 36
  • Contract value factor: 2.19

5. D Shea Theodore (age 23)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.83

6. D Deryk Engelland (age 36)

  • Games played: 34
  • Contract value factor: 1.67

7. D Brayden McNabb (age 27)

  • Games played: 41
  • Contract value factor: 1.4

8. D Jon Merrill (age 26)

  • Games played: 21
  • Contract value factor: 0.73

Goalies

1. G Marc-Andre Fleury (age 33)

  • Games played: 35
  • Contract value factor: 1.83 (1.83 wins / $0.5 million)

2. G Malcom Subban (age 24)

  • Games played: 7
  • Contract value factor: 0.77

Average forwards contract value factor (15): 3.65

Average defensemen contract value factor (8): 2.17

Average goalies contract value factor (2): 1.3

Average contract value factor (encompassing all positions): [(3.65 * 15) + (2.17 * 8) + (1.3 * 2)] / 25 = (54.75 + 17.36 + 2.6) / 25 = 2.99

The average contract value factor for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are not comparable. It is also important to note that these values do not indicate which player is most valuable going forward; rather they convey who is contributing most (offensively) relative to their total cap hit (what counts towards their team’s salary cap) thus far this season. Additionally, one can examine a player’s contract value factor relative to the team’s average contract value factor for that position (forwards, defensemen, or goalies).

We can also compare team A’s average contract value factor to team B’s average contract value factor to see which team is getting more (production) for their money.

Thanks for reading.

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