Estimating the Value of Free Agents: Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and A.J. Pollock

The Bryce Harper v. Manny Machado drama has a cast a shadow over several other notable free agents: Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimberel, and A.J. Pollock. In this investigation, we will attempt to approximate the value of these overlooked free agents through applying age decline and the average cost / 1 WAR to their 2019 Steamer projections.

In Neil Weinberg’s Beginner’s Guide To Aging Curves, he explains that…

“a basic rule of thumb is that once a player gets to 30, you sort of expect them to lose about 0.5 WAR per year of value due to aging. Some players will age better or worse, but that’s an average estimate”.

Another one of his articles talked about the price teams pay per 1 WAR on the FA market. Neil Weinberg asserts that…

$/WAR is basically a measurement of how much teams are paying for players on the free agent market according to how many wins they will add over replacement level players. Right now, we think teams are paying about $8 million per every WAR they add to their roster. For example, a 2 WAR player signed for three years would theoretically provide his team with 6 WAR, so a team might want to pay him anything up to $48 million. If the team pays less than $8 million for each expected WAR, we call this a “good deal” and if they pay more, we say they “overpaid.”

Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel WAR projections by year (accounting for annual loss of 0.5 WAR off of 2019 Steamer projection) and the corresponding monetary cost ( __ WAR * $8 million / 1 WAR)

2019 (age 31 season): 3.2; $25.6 million

2020: 2.7; $21.6 million

2021 (age 33 season): 2.2; $17.6 million

2022: 1.7; $13.6 million

2023 (age 35 season): 1.2; $9.6 million

2024: 0.7; $5.6 million

2025 (age 37 season): 0.2; $1.6 million

Keuchel contract possibilities:

  • 1 yr, $25.6 million
  • 2 yr, $47.2 million
  • 3 yr, $64.8 million
  • 4 yr, $78.4 million
  • 5 yr, $88 million
  • 6 yr, $93.6 million
  • 7 yr, $95.2 million

Prediction: 5 yr, $88 million with Phillies

Craig Kimbrel

Kimbrel WAR projections by year (accounting for annual loss of 0.5 WAR off of 2019 Steamer projection) and the corresponding monetary cost ( __ WAR * $8 million / 1 WAR)

2019 (age 31 season): 1.4; $11.2 million

2020: 0.9; $7.2 million

2021 (age 33 season): 0.4; $3.2 million

2022: -0.1: $-0.8 million

2023 (age 35 season): -0.6: $-4.8 million

Kimbrel contract possibilities:

  • 1 yr, $11.2 million
  • 2 yr, $18.4 million
  • 3 yr, $21.6 million
  • 4 yr, $19.8 million
  • 5 yr, $15 million

Prediction: 1 yr, $11.2 million with Red Sox

A.J. Pollock

Pollock WAR projections by year (accounting for annual loss of 0.5 WAR off of 2019 Steamer projection) and the corresponding monetary cost ( __ WAR * $8 million / 1 WAR)

2019 (age 31 season): 3.1; $24.8 million

2020: 2.6; $20.8 million

2021 (age 33 season): 2.1; $16.8 million

2022: 1.6; $12.8 million

2023 (age 35 season): 1.1; $8.8 million

2024: 0.6; $4.8 million

2025 (age 37 season): 0.1; $0.8 million

Pollock contract possibilites:

  • 1 yr, $24.8 million
  • 2 yr, $45.6 million
  • 3 yr, $62.4 million
  • 4 yr, $75.2 million
  • 5 yr, $84 million
  • 6 yr, $88.8 million
  • 7 yr, $89.6 million

Prediction: 5 yr, $84 million with Phillies

5 comments

  1. I tend not to leave a response, however I looked through a few responses on Estimating the Value of Free
    Agents: Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and A.J. Pollock – Max’s Sporting Studio.
    I actually do have a couple of questions for you if it’s okay.

    Could it be only me or do some of these remarks appear
    like they are coming from brain dead individuals? 😛 And, if you are posting on additional online social sites, I would like to
    follow everything new you have to post. Would you
    make a list of the complete urls of your social pages like your
    linkedin profile, Facebook page or twitter feed? http://legamed.ru/bitrix/redirect.php?event1=&event2=&event3=&goto=http://kasino.vin/home/rollex-11

    Like

  2. I tend not to leave a response, however I looked through a
    few responses on Estimating the Value of Free Agents: Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel,
    and A.J. Pollock – Max’s Sporting Studio.
    I actually do have a couple of questions for you if it’s okay.

    Could it be only me or do some of these remarks appear like they are coming from brain dead
    individuals? 😛 And, if you are posting on additional online social
    sites, I would like to follow everything new you have to post.
    Would you make a list of the complete urls of your social pages like your linkedin profile, Facebook
    page or twitter feed? http://legamed.ru/bitrix/redirect.php?event1=&event2=&event3=&goto=http://kasino.vin/home/rollex-11

    Like

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